腾景团队：1-2月居民消费开局很好

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">

粗略1 全口径本地人消费行为（ADP、未变市价上年）

信息来源不明：腾景社会发展全口径信息库

粗略2 2022年1-2年底三年最少国民生产总值 VS 20211-2年底两年最少国民生产总值

信息来源不明： 腾景社会发展全口径信息库

商家消费行为和一站式消费行为双双持续快速增长，一站式消费行为自由度抬升

2022年1-2年底份，腾景全口径商家消费行为上年分别快速增长9.0%、9.2%；一站式消费行为上年分别快速增长9.0%、10.0%。

1-2年底份，商家消费行为总计上年快速增长9.1%，三年最少快速增长6.0%，较2021年值得一提的是两年最少国民生产总值大大的提高1.5个去年；一站式消费行为上年快速增长9.5%，三年最少快速增长5.7%，较2021年值得一提的是两年最少国民生产总值大大的提高1.8个去年。从自由度信息来看，1-2年底，商家消费行为和一站式消费行为对本地人总消费行为的自由度大致相同49.8%和50.2%，一站式消费行为自由度较上次值得一提的是大大的提高2.1个去年。

粗略3 商家消费行为、一站式消费行为国民生产总值（2021年-两年最少、2022年三年最少）

信息来源不明：腾景社会发展全口径信息库

粗略4 商家消费行为、一站式消费行为自由度

信息来源不明：腾景社会发展全口径信息库

从三年最少信息来看，中央银行简而言之一站式费、公共照护和食品自营国民生产总值极高，大致相同13.2%、10.5%、8.5%。中央银行简而言之一站式费多方面，1-2年底户主款项总计1435486亿元，上年快速增长11.2%，为中央银行简而言之一站式消费行为透过了一定支撑。食品自营多方面，春节前夕人口恒定管控政策较上次相对宽松，春节前夕休闲、贺礼等需求持续快速增长。着装、保险公司一站式、寄居类消费行为三年最少国民生产总值较低，表明服装、保险公司和长江实业消费行为现时仍处于低迷期中。

从国民生产总值输信息来看，2022年1-2年底三年最少国民生产总值大大的大大的提高的有铁路运输和通讯、其他生活用品及一站式、教育、文化时和电玩、着装类，国民生产总值输大致相同6.2%、5.5%、4.7%、3.4%，属性以可选消费行为为主，这四类消费行为在2021年值得一提的是两年最少国民生产总值仅为负值，以后极低，而今年呈现时明显持续快速增长。食品自营、寄居、照护类必选消费行为品波动不大，较硬较强。保险公司一站式消费行为大大的下跌3.3个去年。

当年底上年

2021年1-2年底（两年最少）

2022年1-2年底（三年最少）

国民生产总值输

铁路运输和通讯

17.5%

-2.2%

3.9%

6.2%

其他生活用品及一站式

15.9%

-1.5%

4.0%

5.5%

教育、文化时和电玩

14.5%

-0.2%

4.5%

4.7%

着装

9.1%

-1.5%

1.9%

3.4%

生活生活用品及一站式

12.2%

4.4%

6.9%

2.6%

照护保障

7.2%

3.3%

4.6%

1.3%

公共照护

11.9%

9.8%

10.5%

0.7%

食品自营

9.2%

8.2%

8.5%

0.3%

中央银行简而言之一站式消费行为

13.7%

12.9%

13.2%

0.3%

寄居

4.3%

3.5%

3.8%

0.3%

保险公司一站式消费行为

-4.0%

5.5%

2.3%

-3.3%

粗略5 2022年1-2年底份腾景全口径本地人消费行为11大类结构信息

资料来源不明：腾景社会发展全口径信息库

（执笔人：陈晨、蔡颖）

腾景AI经济预报运用最深处学习等计算机前沿技术，与信息处理化时、动态化时社会发展运行全口径信息体制最深处融合，对重要的经济金融指标进行高频模拟和预报，形成了在两岸三地具有开拓性、领先性、实用性的产品体制。更多重磅预报成果请关注公众号【腾景AI经济预报】。

责任编辑：梁斌 SF055

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